Consumer behaviour is closely connected to confidence, this much is proven again during these last months of Corona scares and Corona counter measures. Nothing hampers consumer behaviour more than uncertainty. Being employed equals keeping confident (being in good health doesn’t hurt either).
This article is focused on giving hope. This seems a controversial approach since all headlines nowadays seems to focus on the negative impact. Truth is nobody knows, so why feed the uncertainty of consumers killing what’s left of hope?
What we do know, based on CBS statistics, is the economic sectoral composite of municipalities. Let’s take some time to analyse local economies. Economic activity provides jobs = income. Income provides time and trust to stay calm take care of the basic necessities in consumption and consumer expenses.
According to a Rabobank study based on CBS data (source plus date) 3 sectors stand out and are and stay is such high demand that combined will contribute to GDP growth, means employment stability and growth. These combined sectors are: “facilitating efficient (ICT) care and education. Combining these 3 sectors in expected 2020 and 2021 GDP output provides a national GDP expected growth of: 1,7%, a much nicer outlook than the -5% to -7,7% we can read about elsewhere(Rabobank, CPB, ABN).
Let’s do some deep diving. Several considerations can be taken into account regarding employment data. Using SCG location attractiveness model (SLIX) the optimal result is created when finding the right economic composite with a positive outcome. A sustainable location equals economic stability also in Corona times. In this case employment in most sensitive Corona sectors (like Tourism F&B, Agriculture and Production) is deducted from employment in Corona growth sectoral mix (ICT, Care, Education).
A national top 5 in absolute measures:
To put this in a more significant perspective how does this national top 5 measure applied to the top 10 largest municipalities and also lets put the most attractive (small (Houten), medium (Amstelveen) and large (Amsterdam)) SLIX locations in the mix. How Corona resilient are they.
Most large cities slightly outperform the Dutch average and are relatively in Balance.
One important side note that has to be taken into account though is about the type of employment, OE stipulated that one of the largest Corona related risks for The Netherlands is the large proportion of flex workers (15%) without income protection. Large municipalities cities tend have the largest share of flex workers. In this light the Governmental decision for the quick distribution of the financial care package (TOZO) is necessary and will also be in demand for a larger period than currently is foreseen.